Today the upper house of the Spanish parliament will pass legislation ensuring that their budget deficit cannot go lower than a certain point. They are one of the first governments to have done this in the face of the eurozone crisis and many are hailing them for it. However, the reason budget deficits get so low in the first place is that to function as a government, nation and economy governments have to invest. As such it will be interesting to see if the spaniards can make this strategy work economically and politically.
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Hindsight
In politics hindsight can be a beautiful thing. You can backtrack on elections promises, 'interpret' poll results and even change your response to a crisis when it is, no longer, a crisis. Remember the banking collapse of 2008? At the time the politicos, all with the hope of appearing knight, desperately tried to come up with a solution to a crisis that seemed, in hindsight ironically, inevitable.
In recent weeks the coalition cabinet has become divided over the issue of separating retail and private banking.
Instead of taking the hardline, the one they took in election season, the Conservatives have now backed off as a result of the intense scrutiny of the banking sector. Unfortunately a large part of their voters have interests in this area. As it is, party politics seems to be winning over careful economic strategy.
It's a tough equation. The separation of banking will almost inevitably affect the growth rate of the economy. However, when it comes down to the individual members of this society it becomes apparent that protecting everyones minor interest, their own money and investments, should be the priority of any elected government.
We have yet to see whether this will be the issue that splits the fragile coalition but it is clear that the current debate is only the beginning of the storm.
After much debate, some worthwhile some not so much, a number of key policies were landed upon by the majority of politicians. These included:
1) To separate retail banking from private housing banking. This would mean the housing market would no longer rely on the fluctuations of the markets to determine stability.
2) Encouraging investment in and creation of smaller businesses by using a mixture of tax breaks and incentives.
3) Regulating the lending of banks by creating stricter rules for both investment and private lending.
However, since the storm passed in mid-2009 the strategies adopted by politicians have become increasingly less bold and the confrontational attitude they had toward the banking sector has all but disappeared.
In recent weeks the coalition cabinet has become divided over the issue of separating retail and private banking.
Instead of taking the hardline, the one they took in election season, the Conservatives have now backed off as a result of the intense scrutiny of the banking sector. Unfortunately a large part of their voters have interests in this area. As it is, party politics seems to be winning over careful economic strategy.
It's a tough equation. The separation of banking will almost inevitably affect the growth rate of the economy. However, when it comes down to the individual members of this society it becomes apparent that protecting everyones minor interest, their own money and investments, should be the priority of any elected government.
We have yet to see whether this will be the issue that splits the fragile coalition but it is clear that the current debate is only the beginning of the storm.
Indebted
The economy, or rather debt for most of the western world, is an essential feature of political life. Deciding both how a government accumulates money and then spends it often defines the term of a government more than foreign and domestic policy put together. Couple these decisions with an economic incident, such as the credit slump of 2008/9, and the scrutiny put on a government's fiscal decisions intensifies even further.
Obama, as the President elected immediately following the slump, has seen his economic policy come under intense scrutiny. Early on the democratic congress passed multiple emergency budget bills and new landmark healthcare legislation was passed that should cut the government's expenditure dramatically. However, as the story slipped from the headlines, the short-term nature of these strategies has become increasingly apparent. As such the necessity for a longer term political strategy is now urgent.
Cut to May 2011. The government of the United States was on the brink of coming to a complete halt. True, it is unlikely this would have ever actually happened. However, although deals were brokered that prevented the government's collapsed a truly workable strategy has yet to be found.
With politics becoming increasingly partisan it is becoming harder for the democratically split US government to effectively govern, especially in rapid response to world events. The economic crisis has increasingly revealed the lack of workability within US politics today. With elections coming up in only 14 months the hope is that with a refreshed congress and presidency so will come refreshed governing. However, as the tea party becomes only more prolific the hopes of this seem dim.
Front-Running Scrutiny
With the Republican primary battle truly starting to heat up (we've had the first debate, the majority of declarations and the fundraising train is running full steam) it's beginning to become apparent, largely from column inches, who will be the front runners in the race.
The flaw for Bachmann is that she may have become the front runner too early. Now she has to balance the media scrutiny alongside the competing interests of the Republican base support that she currently needs as well as the more centrist support she will need to attract should she get the nomination. As we saw with Palin the past can affect your politics totally in this day and age.
Pawlenty, since failing to stand up to Mitt Romney at the first debate, has become a figure of fun. Palin is obviously the most interesting figure, due to her ability to court media attention and lack of an official declaration. Mitt Romney is the stoic old world Republican who, before the race began, seemed to be leaps ahead of any of his competitors in becoming a genuinely viable candidate with a wide support base.
However, no candidate has come as such a surprise as Michelle Bachmann. At first glance she seems greatly plausible: a mother of five with a law degree and successful career behind her, looking to go into politics to promote the (albeit very conservative) values that are most important to her. Indeed, in the first primary debate Bachmann wowed delivering clear rhetoric that left her more stuffy or confused competitors in the dark. Overall, a front runner has been made.
And yet, Bachmann is now facing the challenges that come with being declared a front runner. The media is now acutely aware of her and as such has turned their scrutinizing eye toward her. It has begun with investigations into her past. Any speech she made in the past is now being picked apart for flaws or contradictions. Take her previous comments on homosexuality, where she compared homosexuals to Satan, rather forcefully in a state senate race speech. Now, clearly foreseeing potential troubles in the final Presidential race she has backtracked on that comment. However, by doing that she has isolated some of her potential Republican primary supporters.
The flaw for Bachmann is that she may have become the front runner too early. Now she has to balance the media scrutiny alongside the competing interests of the Republican base support that she currently needs as well as the more centrist support she will need to attract should she get the nomination. As we saw with Palin the past can affect your politics totally in this day and age.
We will see how Bachmann's past will prove toxic to her race.
An Olympian feat
It's been called a shambles and disastrous. It's been accused of benefiting the wealthy, the famous and the powerful. It isn't a source of pure evil. It is the Olympic ticketing system!
As the BBC today published an article all about the general publics reaction to the money they bidded to have drained out of their accounts being actually drained out of their accounts the Olympic committee has again come under scrutiny.
However, despite a minor controversy over some civil service members involved in the bid being able to get hold of another pool of tickets, the Olympic bid has remained largely unpoliticised. True it has come under great scrutiny, and great criticism.
However, the reputations of the last two governments have remained almost entirely untouched by the games. In fact if anything this issue has been a perfect example of the art of not getting involved. Scour the Internet for government commentary on the games and all you will come up with will be general gesticulations about the benefits for Britain's image and economy.
Perhaps, then, we might suggest that the government review their PR response to this issue as an example of what to do in association with issues that simply aren't governmental.
No medals for that one though.
As the BBC today published an article all about the general publics reaction to the money they bidded to have drained out of their accounts being actually drained out of their accounts the Olympic committee has again come under scrutiny.
However, despite a minor controversy over some civil service members involved in the bid being able to get hold of another pool of tickets, the Olympic bid has remained largely unpoliticised. True it has come under great scrutiny, and great criticism.
However, the reputations of the last two governments have remained almost entirely untouched by the games. In fact if anything this issue has been a perfect example of the art of not getting involved. Scour the Internet for government commentary on the games and all you will come up with will be general gesticulations about the benefits for Britain's image and economy.
Perhaps, then, we might suggest that the government review their PR response to this issue as an example of what to do in association with issues that simply aren't governmental.
No medals for that one though.
Alternative Road
Tomorrow the first UK referendum for years will take place giving citizens of that country to increase the opportunity for more direct involvement in their democracy.
The referendum on its own is rare in comparison to the regularity of such votes in similar democracies such as the USA, Canada and France. However, the opportunity to change the UK voting system to a more proportional one gives the nation further opportunity to pull alongside it's peers, many of which established proportional voting systems at at least some level years ago.
Alternative Vote means that more votes will be relevant as it is actually relatively rare for candidates to gain 50% of the vote. Although many Tories have tried to paint this negatively it is impossible to ignore that it is normal in the UK for 65% of votes to be entirely wasted. Clearly this system will further democratize the UK.
However, it remains to be seen how campaigning has affected the referendum. What I have noticed from canvassing friends is that many of them are simply ignorant of many of the details of both systems. The best place to get information is the BBC news website that has comprehensive coverage of the vote: I urge you to read this if you are at all unsure before using your powerful vote tomorrow.
The referendum on its own is rare in comparison to the regularity of such votes in similar democracies such as the USA, Canada and France. However, the opportunity to change the UK voting system to a more proportional one gives the nation further opportunity to pull alongside it's peers, many of which established proportional voting systems at at least some level years ago.
Alternative Vote means that more votes will be relevant as it is actually relatively rare for candidates to gain 50% of the vote. Although many Tories have tried to paint this negatively it is impossible to ignore that it is normal in the UK for 65% of votes to be entirely wasted. Clearly this system will further democratize the UK.
However, it remains to be seen how campaigning has affected the referendum. What I have noticed from canvassing friends is that many of them are simply ignorant of many of the details of both systems. The best place to get information is the BBC news website that has comprehensive coverage of the vote: I urge you to read this if you are at all unsure before using your powerful vote tomorrow.
Leaks
It's been a week of major leaks. First off those in japan (click here to donate)
However, wikileaks has also been propelled once again into prominence. This is because the first big victim of the sight has fallen. Following a cable reporting widespread police corruption in Ecuador was leaked through the site the ecuadorian government had expelled the US ambassador to the country.
This is an issue for two key reasons. First of all it will only add to the US anger over Julian Assange and his site, potentially further damaging his criminal defense.
But secondly it reveals a highly defensive position within a South American country which has recently appeared to be relatively stable. Whether the US's diplomatic position in the country will be reinstated through a new appointment remains to be seen. However, in a year of political upheaval any sign of government corruption is a dangerous spark.
However, wikileaks has also been propelled once again into prominence. This is because the first big victim of the sight has fallen. Following a cable reporting widespread police corruption in Ecuador was leaked through the site the ecuadorian government had expelled the US ambassador to the country.
This is an issue for two key reasons. First of all it will only add to the US anger over Julian Assange and his site, potentially further damaging his criminal defense.
But secondly it reveals a highly defensive position within a South American country which has recently appeared to be relatively stable. Whether the US's diplomatic position in the country will be reinstated through a new appointment remains to be seen. However, in a year of political upheaval any sign of government corruption is a dangerous spark.
Judgement day
If you look back over presidential report cards over the last 50 years you will notice one particular strong pattern: foreign intervention almost never ends well.
With the exception of George HW Bush, who after all did not make it to a second term, foreign intervention is almost always regarded as a mistake and, more importantly, against public opinion.
In the last decade the notorious wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq appear to have turned public opinion against foreign intervention. But there are always rule breakers, and intervention in libya appears to have been generally supported publicly. Instead, it's the way in which we intervene, and the degree of involvement the us has that the public are questioning.
Today President Obama will speak directly about Libya for the first time since intervention began. His grade is yet to be seen, but it is immediately apparent that opinion on Libya could swing either way.
With the exception of George HW Bush, who after all did not make it to a second term, foreign intervention is almost always regarded as a mistake and, more importantly, against public opinion.
In the last decade the notorious wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq appear to have turned public opinion against foreign intervention. But there are always rule breakers, and intervention in libya appears to have been generally supported publicly. Instead, it's the way in which we intervene, and the degree of involvement the us has that the public are questioning.
Today President Obama will speak directly about Libya for the first time since intervention began. His grade is yet to be seen, but it is immediately apparent that opinion on Libya could swing either way.
Cut up
Cuts have the power to incite dramatic, even extreme, reactions in people. There is no concept more clearly associated with the "not in my back yard" phenomenon. This makes tough economic policy very hard to implement.
The government is currently effectively working through a list of departments and expenditure in order to assess where cuts should fall. Every area will be scrutinized, as shown by the already pretty comprehensive list of areas considered, including higher education, defense and localized healthcare. But with cuts comes protest, in pretty much every area.
The latest target (a pretty antagonistic phrase in itself) for cuts is the police force. Overtime pay allowance and antisocial hours pay will be cut. The police force object to this. Understandable, really, considering that anytime anyone is looking at losing resources, personally or professionally, they will inevitably find that objectionable.
What the police force are claiming is that these cuts have resulted from extreme cases of abuse of the system. However, even as they object to cuts on this basis they quote the figure of personal loss of £4000. This in itself is extreme as it is the very top end of what individuals could lose. Other bodies, such as the armed services, have faced far more comprehensive cuts.
It is clear that the police force approach cuts with the not in my back yard approach. However, if anyone doubts the legitimacy of the funding cuts they face casting your mind back to the fear and uncertainty of late 2008 will probably justify the majority of economic action for you. Furthermore if you were to cast your mind over the economic fluctuations of, say, the last century you will realize that cuts are the only way to ensure that inevitable economic lows and highs can be kept relatively constant.
Ultimately cuts are inevitable compensation for excessive expenditure. As such we should consider the horror headlines with a cynical eye, a reflection of our times, not of a nightmare future.
The government is currently effectively working through a list of departments and expenditure in order to assess where cuts should fall. Every area will be scrutinized, as shown by the already pretty comprehensive list of areas considered, including higher education, defense and localized healthcare. But with cuts comes protest, in pretty much every area.
The latest target (a pretty antagonistic phrase in itself) for cuts is the police force. Overtime pay allowance and antisocial hours pay will be cut. The police force object to this. Understandable, really, considering that anytime anyone is looking at losing resources, personally or professionally, they will inevitably find that objectionable.
What the police force are claiming is that these cuts have resulted from extreme cases of abuse of the system. However, even as they object to cuts on this basis they quote the figure of personal loss of £4000. This in itself is extreme as it is the very top end of what individuals could lose. Other bodies, such as the armed services, have faced far more comprehensive cuts.
It is clear that the police force approach cuts with the not in my back yard approach. However, if anyone doubts the legitimacy of the funding cuts they face casting your mind back to the fear and uncertainty of late 2008 will probably justify the majority of economic action for you. Furthermore if you were to cast your mind over the economic fluctuations of, say, the last century you will realize that cuts are the only way to ensure that inevitable economic lows and highs can be kept relatively constant.
Ultimately cuts are inevitable compensation for excessive expenditure. As such we should consider the horror headlines with a cynical eye, a reflection of our times, not of a nightmare future.
Polar Reactions
Recently the headlines have been dominated by extremes, or rather extremist activity. Earlier this year the world and the US particularly was shaken by the Arizona shootings, a seemly extreme reaction to the increasingly polarized world of US politics.
Then in the last week an Arizona woman was convicted of killing a Hispanic man and his daughter in a raid gone wrong designed to fund her anti-immigration border patrol group. This itself had stemmed from another group that had rejected the woman for her extremism.
These events pose a serious question to politicians in the US in the run up to pivotal mid term elections. Have they become too divided? Have debates got too personal, ideologies too limited and inflexible? Is politics practical enough?
With the rise of bodies like the Tea Party bipartisan has become a dirty word. However, if this continues the public may lose touch with the benefits of a cooperative system. And, more worryingly, when bipartisanship does occur the public may resent this, feeling let down by their elected representatives and ultimately taking matters into their own hands.
Bipartisanship is a vital political tool and for the safety and sanity of everyone that should not be forgotten.
Then in the last week an Arizona woman was convicted of killing a Hispanic man and his daughter in a raid gone wrong designed to fund her anti-immigration border patrol group. This itself had stemmed from another group that had rejected the woman for her extremism.
These events pose a serious question to politicians in the US in the run up to pivotal mid term elections. Have they become too divided? Have debates got too personal, ideologies too limited and inflexible? Is politics practical enough?
With the rise of bodies like the Tea Party bipartisan has become a dirty word. However, if this continues the public may lose touch with the benefits of a cooperative system. And, more worryingly, when bipartisanship does occur the public may resent this, feeling let down by their elected representatives and ultimately taking matters into their own hands.
Bipartisanship is a vital political tool and for the safety and sanity of everyone that should not be forgotten.
Women in the world
I was going to write an entry on the effect the attack on Lara Logan in Egypt will have on female journalism. Instead, however, the BBC has written an article on it far better than I ever could so I urge you to go check that out instead.
Presidential barometer reads cold
The announcement of candidates for the US presidency is big news. At the end of two terms it pits the ideologies of two parties firmly against each other, in the idealistic words of starry-eyed, or usually slightly more phased, members of the party elite. At the end of one term it gives the opposition the opportunity to embarrass the serving President, or to ride the wave of embarrassment provided by the recent mid terms.
The Republicans appeared to have taken the Democrats down a peg with their mid term victories. Certainly with fierce words they put the Democrats on the policy defensive. By rights, the announcement of their candidates for the 2012 Presidential elections should be huge news.
Except it hasn't been.
Last time round candidates started announcing way before this point. And some big fish had definitely declared themselves. However, this year people, and particularly potential front runner Mike Huckabee, alongside controversial candidate Sarah Palin, seem reluctant to declare themselves. In fact the only big news has been that there's no news.
For now I'll keep watching. But it's certainly notable that the GOP has not had a running start on the road to office, and that could taint the candidates campaigns.
Check out the coverage of all the speculation on the Huff Post
The Republicans appeared to have taken the Democrats down a peg with their mid term victories. Certainly with fierce words they put the Democrats on the policy defensive. By rights, the announcement of their candidates for the 2012 Presidential elections should be huge news.
Except it hasn't been.
Last time round candidates started announcing way before this point. And some big fish had definitely declared themselves. However, this year people, and particularly potential front runner Mike Huckabee, alongside controversial candidate Sarah Palin, seem reluctant to declare themselves. In fact the only big news has been that there's no news.
For now I'll keep watching. But it's certainly notable that the GOP has not had a running start on the road to office, and that could taint the candidates campaigns.
Check out the coverage of all the speculation on the Huff Post
Populist populous
The problem with a popular opinion is that when the focus of that opinion is no longer applicable the unity of the populous disintegrates.
This happened when the tidal wave of opinion that bought Obama to the presidency collapsed around the literal rendering of his policies. And it is very likely that this will happen in Egypt now the central cry of the protests, calling for the resignation of Mubarak, has been answered.
The groups united under this banner included the pro-democracy middle class and the radical Muslim Brotherhood. The likelihood of these groups forming a united coalition government are remote. The reason that Mubarak claimed as justification for him staying until September? That stable government would only be formed with adequate time to prepare for free and fair elections. It may be that his point will be proven correct.
Although the days of mass protests may have ended, political turmoil in Egypt will continue to be a reality.
This happened when the tidal wave of opinion that bought Obama to the presidency collapsed around the literal rendering of his policies. And it is very likely that this will happen in Egypt now the central cry of the protests, calling for the resignation of Mubarak, has been answered.
The groups united under this banner included the pro-democracy middle class and the radical Muslim Brotherhood. The likelihood of these groups forming a united coalition government are remote. The reason that Mubarak claimed as justification for him staying until September? That stable government would only be formed with adequate time to prepare for free and fair elections. It may be that his point will be proven correct.
Although the days of mass protests may have ended, political turmoil in Egypt will continue to be a reality.
VAT's that
The biggest economic news in the UK currently is the highest ever rate of VAT - the sales tax. It has just risen 2.5% to 20% (from a steady 17.5%). However, the impact that this will have is actually entirely unclear.
Its big news because the general public, the consumer, appears to be directly affected by it. It is true that the price of some goods, notably those with a low profit margin such as TVs and other electricals, will immediately rise. However the majority of goods have relatively high profit margins. As companies are only just feeling recovery post recession they are unlikely to risk profits by forcing the consumer to absorb the increase. Having worked in retail for the last few months I can testify for this - within the company I work for prices will rise steadily over several months.
On the flip side it's unclear whether consumers will actually significantly reduce expenditure due to the rise. When VAT fell in 2008-09 to the lowest rate it can - 15% - consumer spending did not significantly increase. It seems that despite initial excitement the VAT is little noticed by consumers. And the pre-rise post-Christmas shopping rush only served to further the recovery of the retail industry.
It is unclear whether a rise in VAT will increase government income by 13 billion pounds as suggested by the Chancellor. However in these economically fraught times every strategy has to be exercised to its best ability.
Its big news because the general public, the consumer, appears to be directly affected by it. It is true that the price of some goods, notably those with a low profit margin such as TVs and other electricals, will immediately rise. However the majority of goods have relatively high profit margins. As companies are only just feeling recovery post recession they are unlikely to risk profits by forcing the consumer to absorb the increase. Having worked in retail for the last few months I can testify for this - within the company I work for prices will rise steadily over several months.
On the flip side it's unclear whether consumers will actually significantly reduce expenditure due to the rise. When VAT fell in 2008-09 to the lowest rate it can - 15% - consumer spending did not significantly increase. It seems that despite initial excitement the VAT is little noticed by consumers. And the pre-rise post-Christmas shopping rush only served to further the recovery of the retail industry.
It is unclear whether a rise in VAT will increase government income by 13 billion pounds as suggested by the Chancellor. However in these economically fraught times every strategy has to be exercised to its best ability.
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